Ask any seasoned kiteboarder and they’ll tell you: the most underrated skill in the sport isn’t jumping, looping, or even riding upwind—it’s forecasting wind correctly. If you’ve ever driven to the beach and found glassy water despite a “great forecast”—or worse, stayed home only to see your crew posting epic session photos—that’s not just bad luck. That’s a forecasting gap. This guide is here to fix that.

Drawn straight from the daily routines of Aaron McClearnon and the crew at Elite Watersports in St. Petersburg, Florida, this is a hands-on approach to reading wind that any rider, anywhere can apply.

You’ll learn how to:

• Use iKitesurf like a local pro
• Spot patterns and wind cycles other riders miss
• Factor in tide shifts and localized forecasting tools
• Decide when to go—even if the app says “no wind”

Whether you ride in Tampa Bay, the Great Lakes, or the Outer Banks, this guide will help you make better calls, ride more often, and show up on the days when everyone else stays home.

If you're serious about getting more water time, iKitesurf should be your go-to tool. While free apps offer general forecasts, iKitesurf’s paid version delivers real-time wind readings from actual on-site meters—not computer estimates. That’s the game-changer.

“You can become your own meteorologist just from this platform alone,” says Aaron. And he means it.

When Aaron plans lessons or personal sessions, he starts with iKitesurf because it shows what’s really happening—especially at hyper-local spots like the Skyway Bridge and Egmont Key.

Here’s the breakdown:

• Yellow meters = paid stations with high accuracy (like Skyway).
• Green meters = AI-generated estimates.
• White meters = free sensors (often less reliable or inland).

Switch to “detailed view” to access the good stuff:

• The left side shows historical wind (gusts, averages, and lulls).
• The right side maps out forecast models—each one offering a different prediction.

“I look at everything—not just one model” Aaron explains. Consistency across models gives the green light.

Want even deeper insight? Check the archives to identify wind trends—like 3-day or 14-day cycles—which are especially common during the peak seasons in St. Pete.

Pro Tip: Want to know how forecasted wind affects your setup? Learn how to size your kite based on forecasted wind.

Skyway Bridge Forecast Strategy: Read Like a Local Pro

Forecasting at the Skyway isn’t about trusting a single wind number—it’s about reading patterns, meters, and tide interactions like a local. Aaron’s method has helped Elite Watersports deliver consistent lesson days while others cancel due to misleading forecasts.

“We look at the same meters every night. That’s how we get more days on the water when nobody else shows up.” – Aaron

Start with the Right Meter

The Skyway Bridge meter on iKitesurf is your anchor. Aaron also cross-references Egmont Key for patterns on incoming fronts or early shifts.

Switch to the “list view” on iKitesurf, then dive into the detailed forecast for Skyway. Key insights:

• Red line = gusts, blue = average, green = lull.
• Compare model predictions (right) to real data (left).
• Look for trending patterns—did it rise or fall around the same time the past few days?

Don’t Ignore the Tides

Aaron adds tidal knowledge as a secret weapon:

• Red line = gusts, blue = average, green = lull.
• Use Tide Graph Pro to see if tides align with your wind window.

Thinking about riding Skyway? Start here.

Forecasting isn’t just about reading today’s numbers—it’s about recognizing repeatable wind patterns. According to Aaron, St. Pete riders can often predict wind three, even five days ahead by spotting trends in the iKitesurf archives.

“In April, we get these little 3-day ramps where wind builds, peaks, then fades. Come summer, it stretches into a 14-day cycle.” – Aaron

Don’t Ignore the Tides

• Build-up patterns (increasing wind over 2–3 days).
• Drop-offs that signal a break before the next push.
• Repeating highs/lows in the same afternoon or early mornings.

What This Looks Like in St. Pete

• Spring (March–May): Fast-moving systems, 3-day build/fade rhythm.
• Summer (June–August): Slower, consistent 10–14 day wind cycles.
• Fall: Combo of thermals and frontal winds—watch for shifts in timing.
• Winter: Frontal-driven wind. Shorter but more powerful windows.

This same method applies anywhere—just use archive data from your local meter, and look for rhythmic changes. Once you spot the pattern, you’ll know which days are worth watching—even before the forecast updates.

Related tip: Foiling opens up way more wind windows.

Why Tides Change Wind Forecast Accuracy (And How to Use That)

Most riders check the wind, maybe the radar—but ignore the tides. That’s a mistake. Aaron’s local forecasting method shows that when wind and tide oppose, the actual wind on the water is often stronger than forecasted.

“An incoming tide against a northeast breeze? That’s my green light. I know it’s going to be windier than the models say.” – Aaron

Why It Works

Tide movement either flows with or against the wind. When it opposes, the friction between water and air boosts surface wind speed—especially in channels and passes like the ones near Skyway Bridge and Mullet Key.

Here’s how it plays out:

• Incoming tide + offshore breeze = wind boost
• Outgoing tide + onshore breeze = wind boost
• Wind + tide flowing in the same direction = no bump (or even slight suppression)

Real Example from Aaron:

Forecast says 12–15 mph SE. The tide is flooding into the bay from the west. That opposing movement bumps wind up to 16–18 mph on-site—just enough for a lesson or light wind foil session.

Want to rig the right gear when conditions shift? Check out the best gear for light wind days.

Not all tides are created equal—especially in Tampa Bay. Aaron’s forecasting system uses Tide Graph Pro, a mobile app that gives pinpoint-accurate tide predictions for multiple nearby locations. That’s key because even spots just 3 miles apart can have totally different tide timing.

“I’ll check Point Pinellas, then Mullet Key—sometimes the tide’s already turned in one, but still flooding in the other. That changes everything.” – Aaron

Why Tide Graph Pro Beats Generic Tide Tables

• Interactive map selection lets you pick the exact spot (not just the nearest marina).
• It shows timing differences between locations like Skyway, Egmont Key, and Point Pinellas.
• Lets you visualize tide shifts across your full ride window, so you can plan lessons or sessions more confidently.

How Aaron Uses It

For a morning northeast breeze at Skyway, he checks:

• Mullet Key + Point Pinellas for flood timing.
• If both show incoming tide around 8–11 AM, he knows to expect a wind bump—even if models are showing only 10–12 knots.
• Lets you visualize tide shifts across your full ride window, so you can plan lessons or sessions more confidently.

This local tide logic isn't just for Florida. Use the same tactic in your home spot:

• Identify two nearby tide stations
• Check for conflicting current vs. wind flow
• Adjust your wind expectations accordingly

Bonus: Tide knowledge matters even more if you’re foiling.

Bay News 9: The Underrated Forecasting Edge in Tampa Bay

Most kiteboarders scroll through apps like Windy or Weather Channel and call it good. But in Tampa Bay, Aaron swears by a local edge: Bay News 9’s marine forecast.

“It’s way more accurate than people think—especially for marine wind and when cold fronts hit. The forecast videos even show storm timing, so you know exactly when to ride.” – Aaron

Why It Works

• Marine-specific wind forecasts
• Hourly wind shift projections
• Radar video with storm line timing and movement

This is clutch when you're deciding:

• Should I rig now, or wait for the front to pass?
• Is that 60% rain chance actually going to hit the Skyway, or just the I-275 corridor?

How Aaron Uses It

If the models show scattered rain and mixed wind, he’ll check Bay News 9’s marine forecast video. The projected radar line often tells him exactly when a cold front will push through—sometimes down to the hour. That’s helped him schedule lessons, time rides, and even sneak in epic sessions that most riders miss.

Forecast confidence = session success. Want more tools? Here's what to expect at your first kiteboarding lesson.

While iKitesurf and Tide Graph Pro are Aaron’s go-to resources, serious riders don’t rely on just one or two apps. The key to accurate forecasting is cross-referencing multiple tools, especially when the forecast is on the edge.

Aaron’s Extended Toolkit

Bay News 9 Forecast HubGreat for marine-specific wind and real-time radar. Use their daily forecast videos to see exactly when storm lines will arrive and how fast they’re moving. Especially useful before cold fronts or during summer squalls.

MyRadar Pro (Mobile App)This app gives a real-time radar view with wind overlays, helping you track shifting storms or isolated rain cells. It’s Aaron’s go-to for deciding whether to rig or wait it out.

Wind AlertA simpler companion to iKitesurf. Useful for quick scans of local conditions, but best used in tandem with meter data and tide info.

Weather Channel AppGood for general trends, but remember—most of their wind forecasts are regional, not spot-specific. If it says 10 knots, and you're near the coast, chances are it’s stronger on-site.

NOAA Marine ForecastIf you want a raw data source, NOAA’s marine forecast gives you wind speeds, gusts, wave height, and timing. It’s more technical—but powerful if you know what to look for.Want help translating the forecast into gear choice?

Learn how to size your kite based on forecasted wind.

Why Most People Miss Windy Days (and How to Fix That)

Here’s the hard truth: most kiteboarders miss great sessions not because there’s no wind, but because they didn’t forecast it properly. They glance at one app, see 10–12 knots, and decide it’s not worth it. Meanwhile, Aaron and the Elite crew are already rigged at Skyway, riding 14–16.

“We’ve had so many sessions where the beach is empty and it’s ripping—because the forecast was wrong or people didn’t look close enough.” – Aaron

Why It Happens

• Over-reliance on a single app
• Ignoring tide/wind interaction
• Not checking archives or trend patterns
• Trusting inland readings instead of coastal meters

Real Example from Aaron:

Even a 2–3 mph underprediction can be the difference between a powered-up session or staying home. And in borderline wind, having the right gear makes all the difference.

How to Fix It

• Cross-check iKitesurf with Bay News 9 and radar apps
• Look at tide shifts—especially incoming tides with opposing breeze
• Use archive trends to build confidence (3-day/14-day cycles)
• Show up—even when it looks “iffy”

Want to ride more, even in light wind? Check out the best gear for light wind days.

Forecasting gives you more rideable days—and more confidence when you’re learning or coaching. Pair that with the right tools, and you’ll start noticing wind when everyone else misses it.

Elite Watersports has served the Tampa and St Petersburg area for years. They offer kiteboarding and wingsurfing lessons. They also have a retail shop equipt with the latest kitesurfing gear. This is hands down the best location to learn kitesurfing. We have shallow flat water and easy beginner conditions. Call today and reserve your spot for jet-ski-supported lessons. If the wind is blowing, we're going!

If you need help give us a call. .
(727)-800-2202